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<font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif" size="4"><b>ICM:
The Interdisciplinary Contest in Modeling<br>
</b></font> </font><!-- #BeginEditable "body" --><font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, geneva, san-serif">
<p><font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif"><b> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Palatino-Bold">1999
Contest Problem</span></b></font></p>
<p><font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif"> <span style="font-family: Palatino-Bold"><b><font size="4">Ground
Pollution<br>
</font></b><br>
<b>Background</b><br>
<br>
Several practically important but theoretically difficult mathematical
problems pertain to the assessment of pollution. One such problem consists
in deriving accurate estimates of the location and amount of pollutants
seeping inaccessibly underground, and the location of their source, on
the basis of very few measurements taken only around, but not necessarily
directly in, the suspected polluted region.<br>
<br>
<b>Example</b></span></font></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0"><font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-family: Palatino-Bold">The data set (an Excel file at
<b> <a href="http://%20www.comap.com/mcm/procdata.xls" style="text-decoration: none">http://
www.comap.com/mcm/procdata.xls</a></b>, downloadable into most spreadsheets)
shows measurements of pollutants in underground water from 10 monitoring
wells (MW) from 1990 to 1997. The units are micrograms per liter (μg/l).
The location and elevation for eight wells are known and given in <b>Table
1</b>. The first two numbers are the coordinates of the location of the
well on a Cartesian grid on a map. The third number is the altitude in
feet above Mean Sea Level of the water level in the well.</span></font></p>
<p align="center" style="margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0"><font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-family: Palatino-Bold"> <b><span style="font-size: 11pt">Table
1.</span></b></span></font></p>
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<p align="center" style="margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 1">Locations for
eight wells in Problem C.</p>
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<span style="font-family: Palatino-Bold">Well Number</span></font></span></td>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-familyalatino-Bold"> x-Coordinate(ft)</span></font></td>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-familyalatino-Bold"> y-Coordinate(ft)</span></font></td>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-familyalatino-Bold">Elevation(ft)</span></font></td>
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<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"><font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">MW-1</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">MW-3</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">MW-7</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">MW-9</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">MW-11</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">MW-12</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">MW-13</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">MW-14</span></font></td>
<td width="25%" align="center" bordercolor="#111111" style="border-left-width: 1; border-right-width: 1; border-top-width: 1; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1">
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif" style="font-size: 11pt">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">4187.5</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">9062.5</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">7625.0</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">9125.0</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">9062.5</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">9062.5</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">9062.5</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">4750.0</span></font></td>
<td width="25%" align="center" style="border-left-width: 1; border-right-width: 1; border-top-width: 1; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1" bordercolor="#111111">
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif" style="font-size: 11pt">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">6375.0</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">4375.0</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">5812.5</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">4000.0</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">5187.5</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">4562.5</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">5000.0</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">2562.5</span></font></td>
<td width="25%" align="center" style="border-left-width: 1; border-right-width: 1; border-top-width: 1; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1" bordercolor="#111111">
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif" style="font-size: 11pt">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">1482.23</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">1387.92</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">1400.19</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">1384.53</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">1394.26</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">1388.94</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">1394.25</span></font></p>
<p style="margin-top: 4; margin-bottom: 4"> <font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family:Palatino-Bold">1412.00</span></font></td>
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<p align="left"><font face="tahoma, arial, verdana, helvetica, san-serif">
<span style="font-family: Palatino-Bold">The locations and elevations
of the other two wells in the data set (MW-27 and MW-33) are not known.
In the data set, you will also see the letter T, M, or B after the well
number, indicating that the measurements were taken at the Top, Middle,
or Bottom of the aquifer in the well. Thus, MW-7B and MW-7M are from the
same well, but from the bottom and from the middle. Also, other measurements
indicate that water tends to flow toward well MW-9in this area.<br>
<br>
<b>roblem One</b><br>
<br>
Build a mathematical model to determine whether any new pollution has
begun during this time period in the area represented by the data set.
If so, identify the new pollutants and estimate the location and time
of their source.<br>
<br>
<b>roblem Two</b><br>
<br>
Before the collection of any data, the question arises whether the intended
type of data and model can yield the desired assessment of the location
and amount of pollutants. Liquid chemicals may have leaked from one of
the storage tanks among many similar tanks in a storage facility built
over a homogeneous soil. Because probing under the many large tanks would
be prohibitively expensive and dangerous, measuring only near the periphery
of the storage facility or on the surface of the terrain seems preferable.
Determine what type and number of measurements, taken only outside the
boundary or on the surface of the entire storage facility, can be used
in a mathematical model to determine whether a leak has occurred, when
it occurred, where (from which tank) it occurred, and how much liquid
has leaked.<br>
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