2006高教社杯全国大学生数学建模竞赛B题评阅要点

jiangsu200

<p class="MsoPlainText" align="center" style="TEXT-ALIGN: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体;">2006</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体;">高教社杯全国大学生数学建模竞赛<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">B</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">题</span>评阅要点<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-layout-grid-align: none;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文楷体;">[</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文楷体;">本要点<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">仅供参考，各赛区应根据对题目的理解及学生的解答，自主地进行评阅<span lang="EN-US">]<p></p></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-layout-grid-align: none;"><line id="_x0000_s1026" strokeweight="4.5pt" to="450pt,5.95pt" from="0,5.95pt" style="Z-INDEX: 1; LEFT: 0px; POSITION: absolute; TEXT-ALIGN: left;"><stroke linestyle="thinThick"></stroke></line><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p>&nbsp;</p></span></b><br clear="all" style="mso-ignore: vglayout;"/></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 17.6pt; TEXT-INDENT: -17.6pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 17.6pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.46;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">问题（</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）</span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">
                </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">利用附件</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的数据预测继续治疗的效果，或者确定最佳治疗终止时间。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1．</span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">分析数据</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">随机取若干个病人，画出他们</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">HIV</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">浓度随时间变化的图形（折线），可以看出</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">大致有先增后减的趋势，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">HIV</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">有先减后增的趋势，启示应建立时间的二次函数模型（若先用一次函数模型，应与二次函数模型做统计分析比较）。附件</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">中个别病人缺</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">或</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">HIV</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">数据（数据表中为空），计算时应注意。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2．</span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">建立模型</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">可能有以下形式的回归模型：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 18pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">
                </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">总体回归模型</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">用全部数据拟合一个模型，如</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">y_ij=b₀+b₁t_ij+b₂t_ij²</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">t_ij</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">为第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">i</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">病人第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">j</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">次测量时间，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">y_ij</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">为第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">i</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">病人第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">j</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">次测量值（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">HIV</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）或测量值与初始值之比。一次与二次函数模型比较，二次较优。用数据估计</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">b₀,b₁,b₂, </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">对</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">b₂&lt;0, b₁&gt;0, t=-b₁/2b₂
                </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">达到最大；对</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">HIV</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">b₂&gt;0,b₁&lt;0, t=-b₁/2b₂
                </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">达到最小。一般在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">25~30</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">（周）</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">达到最大、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">HIV</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">达到最小。可以合理地确定最佳治疗终止时间。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 18pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2) </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">个人回归模型</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">用每个病人的数据拟合一个模型，如上式（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">b_k</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">改为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">b_ik, k=0,1,2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">），</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">
                </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">计算</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">b_ik</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的均值和均方差，用均值同</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）可得</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的最大点和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">HIV</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的最小点，一般为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">20~30</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">（周）。可对</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">统计</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">b_2i&lt;0, b_1i&gt;0</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">（存在正最大点）及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">b_2i&gt;0</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">（不存在最大点）的频率，对</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">HIV</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">统计</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">b_2i&gt;0, b_1i&lt;0</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">（存在正最小点）及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">b_2i&lt;0</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">（不存在最小点）的频率，在一定条件下可以作为终止治疗与继续治疗的概率（一般为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">0.6~0.8</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">与</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">0.3~0.2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）；也可用</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">b_ik</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的均值和均方差在一定分布的假定下直接计算这些概率。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p>

jiangsu200

<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 18pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 18.0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">注</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">
                </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">建立几种模型相互比较、验证者较优。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-LEFT: 47.9pt; TEXT-INDENT: -30.05pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 48.0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">注2<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman';">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">不能只有模型，不做统计分析；对模型结果进行统计分析，考虑与数据拟合程度、注意去除异常数据者较优。</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">
                        <span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-LEFT: 47.9pt; TEXT-INDENT: -30.05pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 48.0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">注3<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman';">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">注意到有一些数据是当出现</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">下降、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">HIV</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">上升就及时结束的，并做出适当考虑者较优。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-LEFT: 47.9pt; TEXT-INDENT: -30.05pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 48.0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">注4<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman';">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">注意到题目中“艾滋病治疗的目的，是尽量减少人体内</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">HIV</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的数量，同时产生更多的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，至少要有效地降低</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">减少的速度”，并对结果做出适当考虑者较优。</span></p>

jiangsu200

<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 24.1pt; TEXT-INDENT: -24.1pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 24.1pt; mso-char-indent-count: -2.0;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">问题（</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）</span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">
                </span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">利用附件</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的数据，评价</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">种疗法的优劣，并对较好疗法预测继续治疗的效果，或者确定最佳治疗终止时间。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 24.1pt; TEXT-INDENT: -24.1pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 24.1pt; mso-char-indent-count: -2.0;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">回归模型方法</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 24pt; TEXT-INDENT: -24pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 24.0pt; mso-char-indent-count: -2.0;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">．<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">分析数据</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">对于每种疗法随机取若干个病人，画出他们</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">随时间变化的图形（折线），可以看出疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1~3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">基本上水平，略有下降，而疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">有先增后减的趋势。启示应建立时间的一次与二次函数模型，经统计分析比较，确定哪种较优。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-TOP: 7.8pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">．<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">建立模型</b></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">
                        </span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 5.25pt 0pt 15.75pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 5.25pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.5gd;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）回归模型</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">可以引入</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">（或</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）个</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">0-1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">变量表示</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">种疗法建立统一模型，或者对每种疗法各建立一个模型（一般来说前者较优）；仍可利用问题（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）中的各种模型。以总体回归模型为例，分别用一次与二次时间函数模型进行比较，可知疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1~3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">用一次模型较优，且一次项系数为负，即</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在减少，从数值看疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">优于疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">；疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">用二次模型较优，即</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">先增后减，在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">t=20</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">左右达到最大。可以通过</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">条回归曲线进行比较，显示疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">30</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">周之前明显优于其它。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 5.25pt 0pt 15.75pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 5.25pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.5gd;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年龄的处理：简单地增加年龄变量；按年龄分组，考虑不同年龄的影响。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 15.75pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.5gd;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）用假设检验做疗法有无显著性差异的两两比较</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">用</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">个</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">0-1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">变量构造两种疗法的统一模型，可以用</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">t</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">检验作回归系数是否为零的假设检验（与回归系数置信区间是否含零点等价）。结果是疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">与</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">无显著性差异，而疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">与</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">与</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">与</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">均有显著性差异。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 15.75pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.5gd;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">注</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">注意问题（</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">）的几个注。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p>

jiangsu200

<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN-TOP: 7.8pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">线性规划模型方法</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.5;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">．</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">
                </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">数据分析</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">考虑到治疗的效果与患者的年龄有关，将患者按年龄分组，如</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">14~25</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">岁</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">,25~35</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">岁</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">,35~45</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">岁及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">45</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">岁以上</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">组。每组中按照</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">种疗法和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">个治疗阶段（如</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">0~10</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">周，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">10~20</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">周，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">20~30</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">周，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">30~40</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">周），构造</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">16</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">个决策单元。取</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">种药品量为输入，治疗各个阶段末患者的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">值与开始治疗时</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">CD4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">值的比值为输出。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">
                        <p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.5;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">建立模型</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">利用相对有效性评价方法，建立分式规划模型并经过变换，转化为线性规划模型求解，对各年龄组患者在各阶段的治疗效率进行评价。计算结果：对第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年龄组疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在整个治疗中效率较高，在第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">阶段仍然有效；对第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年龄组疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">阶段有效；对第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年龄组疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">阶段有效；对第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年龄组疗法</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">在第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">阶段有效。表明只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">14~25</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">岁的年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">种轻患者，才能在治疗的最后阶段仍然有有效的疗法。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 7.8pt 0cm 0pt 15.75pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-para-margin-top: .5gd; mso-para-margin-right: 0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">由线性规划模型的对偶形式建立预测模型，对各年龄组各种疗法下一阶段的疗效进行预测。若由某决策单元得到的实际输出大于预测输出，则该决策单元相对有效；反之，说明该种疗法对该组患者在治疗的未来阶段不再有效，应该转换疗法。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p>