[原创]贴出我们的A题！！！！原创！！

tangbaby

<p>作为新时代网络人，都要讲道德，别人发了，你看了！就要回！！</p><p>考虑到有人没账号，那就回email: <a href="mailto:zhigaotang@gmail.com">zhigaotang@gmail.com</a></p><p>再没有就qq吧：989407</p><p>如果你两样都没有，那你就赶快申请个吧，，，不过说明你现在是古代人！</p><p>==========================正题！============按人力120约束=====（评论：不符合实际的）</p><p>我们首先按照题目要求，对06年单位书号销售量预测，采用线性回归，时间序列，之后比较两者优略，最后采用线性回归预测；</p><p>按照市场占有率，满意度，进行量化形成：竞争力系数=a</p><p>再加上准确度---实际/计划=b</p><p>目标：a*b*x*p</p><p>其中：x各课程给的书号。：p课程均价</p><p>再按题中给出的三个约束（你不会不知道吧~~），建立整数线性规划模型，lingo求解；</p><p>（贴出精确到分社答案）</p><p><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">（见下贴！！）</span></p>

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-10-6 12:14:10编辑过]

tangbaby

<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><p><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">&nbsp;总营业额22230323元<br/>&nbsp;<br/>分社类别<br/>&nbsp;分配书号数<br/>&nbsp;<br/>计算机类<br/>&nbsp;55<br/>&nbsp;<br/>经管类<br/>&nbsp;42<br/>&nbsp;<br/>数学类<br/>&nbsp;120<br/>&nbsp;<br/>英语类<br/>&nbsp;60<br/>&nbsp;<br/>两课类<br/>&nbsp;72<br/>&nbsp;<br/>机械、能源类<br/>&nbsp;56<br/>&nbsp;<br/>化学、化工类<br/>&nbsp;24<br/>&nbsp;<br/>地理、地质类<br/>&nbsp;34<br/>&nbsp;<br/>环境类<br/>&nbsp;37</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>

tangbaby

<p>对上述英语类好像偏低，，但有其他社太强，所以也是合理的</p><p>对环境社过多的原因是由于其占有率高，，但是05年以达到96%，而且总需求量过小，</p><p>所以我们认为是不合理的，产生这样情况主要是由于数学社的人力约束</p><p>综上：与题中相对应的现实情况一定是数学社----存在临时人员！！</p><p>===============考虑实际情况的模型=========================</p><p>主要运用了波士顿矩阵，它考虑相对占有率，市场增长率</p><p>（我们认为较完善）</p><p>每年的市场总需求量=A社销售/市场占有率</p><p>相对占有率表示该业务相对于最大竞争对手的市场份</p><p><a href="http://www.acmr.com.cn/newsletter/3/200608/company/200608001.html">http://www.acmr.com.cn/newsletter/3/200608/company/200608001.html</a></p><p>建立可以人为控制战略的最优化模型：</p><p>&nbsp;以人均创造利益最大为目标：</p><p>波士顿策略系数<br/>不同的参数&nbsp;发展战略1&nbsp;发展战略2&nbsp;发展战略3&nbsp;发展战略4&nbsp;发展战略5<br/>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 正常发展&nbsp;发展明星类&nbsp;创新发展问题类&nbsp;发展金牛类&nbsp;补救瘦狗类</p><p>22710213&nbsp;总营业额1<br/>22614033&nbsp;总营业额2<br/>22212036&nbsp;总营业额3<br/>22472930&nbsp;总营业额4<br/>22131952&nbsp;总营业额5</p><p><br/>17228.39&nbsp;人均效益1<br/>17133.94&nbsp;人均效益2<br/>16843.29&nbsp;人均效益3<br/>17054.14&nbsp;人均效益4<br/>16761.38&nbsp;人均效益5</p><p><br/>战略&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5<br/>分社类别&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 书号数&nbsp;书号数&nbsp;书号数&nbsp;书号数&nbsp;书号数</p><p><br/>计算机类&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 58&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; 58&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 66&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 58&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;60<br/>经管类&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;42&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; 44&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;42&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 41&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;41<br/>数学类&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 148&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 152&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;144&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;154&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 150<br/>英语类&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 78&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; 81&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 76&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 73&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;82<br/>两课类&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 66&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; 54&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 65&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;66&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;58<br/>机械、能源类&nbsp; 30&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 34&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 30&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;30&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;32<br/>化学、化工类&nbsp; 21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 21<br/>地理、地质类&nbsp; 28&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;28&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;28<br/>环境类&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 29&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; 29&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 29&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;29&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 28<br/></p><p><br/></p>

tangbaby

<p>no&nbsp;&nbsp; one???</p>

jiaoheming

这个答案是不是再搞详细点？

pp39696654

<p>求教：</p><p>好象市场占有率的估计。是什么市场占有率？？</p><p></p><p>同类出版社的。还是在总社的？</p><p></p><p>按年份算的。还是按什么？5年的市场占有率不一样啊~~</p><p></p><p></p>

loveletter

<p>不错</p><p></p>

tangbaby

<p>回答6楼！</p><p>处理数据是本题关键，据我所知好多队员只是对电子表格操作，这是达不到要求的</p><p>我认为正确的处理方法是直接使用MATLAB的电子表格读取函数XLSREAD,读取之后的第三个返回参数RAW是元胞数组，可以查阅相关书籍学习，这和处理一般数组的区别在于需要“先取再用”。</p><p>能够在MATLAB中处理的话相信不管是预测还是均值，都没有问题了</p><p>可以具体到每课程，每分社，，然后比较量化</p><p></p>