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第二届全国大学生数学建模夏令营题目!

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发表于 2006-8-16 15:09:21 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
<p class="MsoPlainText" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">2006年全国大学生数学建模竞赛夏令营题目<p></p></span></p><p class="MsoPlainText" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文楷体;"><font face="宋体">(<span lang="EN-US">A、B、C三题任选一题)<p></p></span></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-layout-grid-align: none;"><line id="_x0000_s1026" strokeweight="4.5pt" to="414pt,7.4pt" from="0,6.8pt" style="Z-INDEX: 1; LEFT: 0px; POSITION: absolute; TEXT-ALIGN: left;"><stroke linestyle="thinThick"><font face="宋体"></font></stroke></line><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;<p></p></font></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LAYOUT-GRID-MODE: char; LINE-HEIGHT: 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-layout-grid-align: none;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;<p></p></font></span></b></p><p><br clear="all" style="mso-ignore: vglayout;"/></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">A</font></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">题</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">: </font></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">教材出版业的市场调查、评估和预测方法</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt;"><p></p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt;"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span><p></p></font></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">题目</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><p></p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 31.5pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">某出版社出版多类高等教育和职业教育的教材。从出版社的战略发展、投资策略、生产安排、销售方式、和产品策划等业务考虑,需要对出版社的市场占有率(市场份额)及其逐年变化进行调查。请你设计有效而可行的调查方法,并且建立调查数据的分析模型,以及对市场作出科学评估和预测的方法。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 31.5pt;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">本题的附录中给出的基础数据是问卷式普查数据,由于抽样成本的限制,普查是不可取的,而且抽样数应该在调查目的的基础上尽量少。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">题目说明</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><p></p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 46.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 46.5pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.<span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font></span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">由于抽样成本,普查不可取,但是抽样方法的样本数和调查效益之间有平衡关系,确定你的抽样数时应该考虑这种平衡关系。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 46.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 46.5pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2.<span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font></span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">完整地描述你的调查方法,并且清楚地给出你的模拟数据。如果使用问卷式抽样调查(不限于问卷式),请给出问卷格式。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 46.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 46.5pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">3.<span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font></span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">给出基于调查数据的市场评估和预测模型,并用数据说明你的方法的有效性和科学性。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 46.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 46.5pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">4.<span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font></span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">在附录</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中给出了一个参考的问卷格式,也给出与该问卷相关的一个数据库</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">(</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">附录</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">4)</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">。这个数据库是包含十个省,全部学生(为了减少数据量,假定全班学生填表相同,因此每个专业只有一个学生填写问卷)的模拟答卷(包括三年的),作为本竞赛题的背景数据</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 46.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 46.5pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">5.<span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font></span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">附录</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中给出供本题提供的数据库的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">29</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">类教材名称以及分类号,附录</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">给出某出版社各类教材的三年销售量,可供查询。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 46.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 46.5pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">6.<span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font></span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">在附录</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">中也给出十个省所有学校名称以及其专业名称,你可以用在这些检索词确定你对数据库的取样查询。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 46.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 46.5pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">7.<span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font></span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">如果你自行选用数据,请给出调查数据的可靠性和合理性的检验方法和数据来源。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt;"><p></p></span></p><p></p><p>题目中的四个附件请到全国组会网站下载:http://www.mcm.edu.cn</p>
 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-16 15:15:00 | 显示全部楼层
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 14.05pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-char-indent-count: 1.0; mso-char-indent-size: 14.05pt;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">B</font></span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">题:铁路大提速下的京沪线列车调度</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><p></p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">  </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">我国铁路自</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1997</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年以来先后进行了5次大提速,以前客车的最高时速为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">60</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">80</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">公里</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">小时,到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2004</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">18</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">日的第5次提速后,京沪等部分干线客车的最高时速达到了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">160</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">200</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">公里</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">小时。据悉,在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年实施第</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">次大提速后,将使部分干线上运行客车的最高时速都提高到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">200</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">公里</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">小时</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">。另外,我国在“十一五”期间将修建京沪高速客运专线铁路,计划运行初期的最高时速为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">300</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">公里</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">小时</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">参看附件</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">目前,我国铁路大都采用客货混运的机制,目前主要干线铁路客车最高时速可达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">160</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">公里</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">小时,货车最高时速为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">80</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">公里</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">小时,客车与货车的运行数量比例大约为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5 </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">:</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">7</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">。根据铁路安全规程的要求,既有线路同方向相继列车的间隔时间不得少于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">7</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">分钟。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">京沪线是我国最繁忙的铁路线之一,贯通北京至上海,途经</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">40</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">多个城市,全长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1463</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">公里</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">参看附件</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2) </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">。目前全线采用上行线和下行线独立双向运行方式,分别运行着</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">175</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">趟和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">176</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">趟客车,最高时速</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">160</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">公里</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">小时,具体的车次和时刻表如附件</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">和附件</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">所示。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">请你研究以下问题(第</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">,</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">题必须做,其它题中至少选做</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">个):</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">)从京沪全线选择一个区间段,如济南至徐州,或南京至上海,根据现行的列车时刻表最多能安排多少趟货车,并制订出具体的“列车运行图”。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">)对现行的列车时刻表进行分析,如果要在客流增加时(如春运和黄金周期间)在北京至上海、北京至南京、天津至上海、北京至合肥、北京至青岛间各增开一对临时客车,在不改变现行列车时刻表及尽量减少对货车影响的条件下,制订出临时客车的时刻表</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">只安排京沪线区间</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">)</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">及“列车运行图”(只考虑客车)。</span></p>
 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-16 15:15:52 | 显示全部楼层
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">)如果在即将实行的第</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">次大提速时将京沪线上的客车的最高时速提高到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">200</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">公里</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">小时,货车的最高时速提高到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">120</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">公里</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">小时,制订出相应的客车时刻表和“列车运行图”。按照第</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">题选择的区间段进行估计,与提速前相比货车可以提高多少运力?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">(</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">)针对预计到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年投入运行的京沪高速铁路客运专线(现京沪线用作货运),如果高速列车时速达到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">300</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">公里</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">小时,普通列车提速到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">200</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">公里</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">小时。在安全行车规程的要求之下(同方向相继列车的间隔距离不得少于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4500</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">米),并考虑各经过城市的客运需求量,给出现有客车相应的时刻表,同时还能至少增加多少客车,运行时刻表如何?</span><font face="Times New Roman">
                </font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.25pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">(5) </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">如果某一列客车因故晚点,就会影响到后续列车的正常运行,给出可行的实时调整相关列车的运行策略,使得造成的影响最小,并就某一列客车进行分析检验。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;<p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;<p></p></font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体;">附件<span lang="EN-US">1</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">: </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体;">背景材料</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体;">附件</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2: </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体;">京沪铁路车站及里程表<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体;">附件<span lang="EN-US">3: 京沪铁路客运列车(下行</span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;">)<span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体;">附件<span lang="EN-US">4:</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">
                        </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体;">京沪铁路客运列车(上行)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体;"></span></p><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体;"></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体;"><p><p>题目中的四个附件请到全国组会网站下载:http://www.mcm.edu.cn</p></p></span></b>
 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-16 15:16:56 | 显示全部楼层
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">C</font></span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">题:旅游需求的预测预报</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt;"><p></p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center;"><b><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;<p></p></font></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center;"><b><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;<p></p></font></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">我国的旅游资源极其丰富,是一个国际旅游大国。合理规划、正确地预测预报旅游需求,对于促进我国各地区的经济发展和文化交流有着重要意义。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">现在要求你们选择合适的旅游城市或地区,对旅游需求的预测和预报建立数学模型,来帮助有关部门进一步规划好旅游资源。具体说:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><font face="Times New Roman">1.<span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp; </span></font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">对你们所选的旅游城市或地区,根据你们能够查到的关于旅游需求的预测预报资料,并结合你们从相关旅游部门了解到的情况,分析旅游资源、环境、交通、季节、费用和服务质量等因素对旅游需求的影响,建立关于旅游需求的预测预报的数学模型。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><font face="Times New Roman">2.<span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp; </span></font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">你们可以利用国内外已有的与旅游需求预测预报相关的数学建模资料和方法,分析这些建模方法能否直接移植过来,做出合理、正确的预测预报;如果不行的话,请对这些方法的优、缺点做出评估,并提出改进的办法。但在引用他人的资料时必须注明出处。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><font face="Times New Roman">3.<span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp; </span></font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">为了能够用数学建模的方法对旅游需求进行预测预报,必须做好哪些准备工作(包括有关数据的采集和整理)?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><font face="Times New Roman">4.<span style="FONT: 7pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp; </span></font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">在调研及对你们所建立的数学模型分析的基础上写出一篇报告,向有关旅游部门提出具体的建议。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><p></p></span></p>
 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-16 15:26:43 | 显示全部楼层
<p>第二届全国大学生数学建模夏令营活动虽然结束了,从这次活动的情况来看,这三个题目都是来自于实际中实际问题,其中某些问题还没有很好的解决,很值得广大的师生做进一步研究和讨论,任何一个问题的解决都会有一定的实际意义,为此推荐给大家,希望大家对感兴趣的问题做一些分析研究,会对我们的这项活动有积极的推动作用.必要时可直接与命题人交流讨论.</p><p>命题人:</p><p>A题: 北京工业大学孟大志教授</p><p>B题: 解放军信息工程大学信息工程学院韩中庚教授</p><p>C题: 北京理工大学叶其孝教授</p>
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-8-16 7:32:42编辑过]

发表于 2006-8-28 23:31:43 | 显示全部楼层
<p>想要份A题的答案(论文),学习一下。谢谢。</p><p>麻烦发至:<a href="mailto:wfg927@yahoo.com.cn">wfg927@yahoo.com.cn</a></p>
 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-30 02:52:07 | 显示全部楼层
<p>温馨提示:</p><p>  夏令营的这三个题目解决的工作量都相当大,学生在三天内不可能完成,不适合作模拟赛题使用,有兴趣可以在下面研究讨论,所以建议最好不要用来作模拟题.否则会对学生有负面的影响,小小的建议,供各位同仁参考!</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>
发表于 2006-8-30 19:20:21 | 显示全部楼层
<p>怎么没人讨论呢。。</p><p>我看了下A题,数据库太庞大 。正在准备自学数据库呢。</p><p>要不人太累了。。</p>
发表于 2006-8-31 06:48:15 | 显示全部楼层
<p>我看了下B,好麻烦.想看下大家的论文....发至huiweipan@126.com</p>
发表于 2006-8-31 06:49:06 | 显示全部楼层
<p>忘记说谢谢了~~~呵呵</p>
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