求高手指点

jiguang

<>下面是中科大2005年MCM预选赛题,望高手给点思路,不胜感激!</P>
< align=left><STRONG><FONT face="Times New Roman">Would-Be-Presidential 20/20 Hindsight<o:p></o:p></FONT></STRONG></P>
< align=left><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT></o:p></P>
<P><FONT face="Times New Roman">You represent a political consultancy firm specializing in election processes and political advertising.   A  candidate  from  a  major  party has  approached  you  asking for  help  with budgeting  his  campaign  funds.   The candidate receives $75 million  of  government funding and the national committee of his party has the right to spend $16 million more in a direct coordination with him.<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT></o:p></P>
<P><FONT face="Times New Roman">Part I<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="Times New Roman">Given this total amount (to be spent by November 2), you need to develop a strategy for buying advertising throughout the <st1:country-region><st1:place>USA</st1:place></st1:country-region>.  Your strategy should be based on the following statistics for each state:<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.   the number of electoral votes awarded by that state;<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.   whether the state has the proportional vs. the “winner-takes-all” system;<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.   the current distribution       of voters among all parties   (including “unaffiliated/independent”);<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.   the voters’ susceptibility to political advertising;<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="Times New Roman">5.   the likelihood of attracting the voters currently supporting “minor” parties.<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT></o:p></P>
<P><FONT face="Times New Roman">A  successful  strategy  would  allow  for  “incremental  budgeting”  (on  a  week-by-week basis) taking into account some measure of return per each dollar already spent in each particular state.   Provide recommendations for the methods &amp; the proportion of money that  should  be  allocated  to  increase  the  voter  turn-out  (on  top  of  the  traditional  media advertisement).<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT></o:p></P>
<P><FONT face="Times New Roman">Part II<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face="Times New Roman">You estimate that, with  probability P, a ballot initiative to scrap the  “winner-takes-all” system  might  be  approved  in  the  state  of  Colorado.   Note, that if this ballot passes, it might affect the results of the current elections.  Generalize your previous strategy to take this into account.<o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT></o:p></P>
<P><FONT face="Times New Roman">In addition, provide an assessment for the governor’s office of the state of Colorado on how the passage of this ballot is likely to influence the amount of in-state spending by the federal government.<o:p></o:p></FONT></P><br>

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-1-17 17:24:20编辑过]

young_ys

你还有中文翻译吗？