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发表于 2003-9-28 16:52:44
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A Cold War in Cyberspace
he growing rivalry between AOL Time Warner and Microsoft is
spawning a web of deals and alliances, which could mean good news
for consumers.
Two titans are left standing in the wake of the dot-com collapse.
There's AOL Time Warner (AOL ) spanning media, Internet access, and
cable television. Equally formidable is Microsoft, cutting its
impressive swath through the software world. Talks between the two
recently broke down over how Microsoft's much-anticipated XP
operating system would interact with AOL's Internet services. That
has fueled much speculation over which company will emerge
victorious in the battle for the loyalty of a new generation of
Netizens.
Billed as the ultimate cyberwar, it's likely to be a complicated
affair with a lot of Cold War sparring, alliance-building, and
grabbing of strategic tech territory. While Microsoft and AOL
compete directly in such areas as dial-up access, instant messaging,
and interactive TV, there are many others where they don't. For
instance, AOL doesn't have an operating system, and Microsoft isn't
a media company. It's in these no-contact zones where the Cold War
is most active.
Both giants are busy forming alliances to create new spheres of
influence. And the propaganda is hot and heavy, too. "We
fundamentally don't think that consumers should be left with the
same choice in music players or anything else that they're left with
in spreadsheets, [word-processing] programs, and other...software.
That's a choice of MS or nothing at all," argues John Buckley, AOL
Time Warner's vice-president for corporate affairs.
WORTHY OPPONENTS. Do consumers stand a chance in a market carved
up by two corporate superpowers? Surprisingly, the answer may be
yes. For the first time in a decade, AOL and Microsoft each face an
adversary with real clout. Ultimately, an unwinnable war may keep
competition healthy in important emerging markets, such as digital
media, electronic games, and cable.
Witness the battle over streaming-media technology. AOL doesn't
make a media player -- but it wants to make sure that someone
besides Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer does. So it's building a strong
alliance with RealNetworks, Microsoft's competitor in streaming
technology. The Seattle-based company is the market leader, with
more than 200 million registered users. But RealNetworks, founded by
former Microsoft employee Rob Glaser, has had a tough time spinning
cash from those users. That's particularly true since Microsoft
gives its similar Windows Media Player away free as part of its
ubiquitous Windows operating system.
AOL is giving RealNetworks maximum backing. Last July, AOL
announced that it would bundle RealNetworks' RealPlayer into the
newest version of AOL, 6.0, giving RealNetworks access to AOL's 30
million-strong subscriber base. On Apr. 2, AOL chose RealNetworks as
a partner for its upcoming music-subscription service, MusicNet.
The service, a partnership between Time Warner Music, EMI, and
BMG, will offer a wide collection of downloadable and streaming
music backed by RealNetworks' technology. "Whether it's a portable
device, a game machine, or something else, if you don't want to be
sucked into the world of Windows, you need another alternative,"
says one digital-media expert. "Clearly Real is becoming a tool of
companies that don't want to do everything with Windows."
GAME PLAN. Online gaming is another area both AOL and Microsoft
covet. Once video games are routinely connected to the Net, the
console becomes a valuable platform, much like the PC, from which
ads, music and, of course, video games can be sold. On May 15, AOL
struck a deal with Sony to include its e-mail and instant messaging
programs in the next version of PlayStation 2.
In exchange, Sony will build an adapter into the game console that
allows consumers to access AOL Internet features and play
Net-enabled games. By yearend, Sony also will include RealNetworks'
RealPlayer and RealJukebox software on hard drives that can be added
to PlayStation 2 consoles.
The furious dealmaking by AOL is all aimed at blunting Microsoft's
steady move into the market. On Nov. 8, Gates & Co. will launch the
new Xbox game system in a $500 million marketing blitz that is sure
to cause damage. Gaming "isn't a core area for either AOL or
RealNetworks, but neither wanted to cede it to Microsoft," says John
Corcoran, an analyst at CIBC Markets in Boston.
Microsoft is likewise making defensive alliances in areas of AOL
strength, such as cable TV, though it plays down the notion that
keeping AOL in check is of strategic importance. "We're moving ahead
with a strategy that relies a lot on third-party support. But it's
up to AOL to decide how they want to partner with Microsoft," says
company spokesman Jim Cullinan. Since 1997, Microsoft has invested
$1 billion in Comcast (CMCS ) and $5 billion in AT&T (T ) to ensure
that it keeps a big hand in the development of interactive TV.
"Microsoft is working hard to become a player in the cable
industry. And the industry has anointed Microsoft as one of the two
players in the interactive-TV space," says Michael Goodman, a cable
analyst at the Boston research firm Yankee Group. While such
investments don't directly undermine Time Warner cable properties,
they help keep rival cable operators on the digital edge.
BOOSTING SUN. Meanwhile, AOL is keen on building solidarity with
other companies in the anti-Microsoft camp. In January, AOL gave
Microsoft archrival Sun Microsystems (SUN ) a big boost in a time of
slumping sales by purchasing $400 million in products and services.
That's on top of the $500 million worth of equipment it AOL bought
in 1998. AOL now uses more than 4,000 Sun servers.
More recently, Microsoft moved to test the loyalty of AOL's 30
million dial-up network users. When AOL hiked its prices by 9% in
May, MSN's prices stayed flat, and it offered three months of free
service to new customers. Gates & Co. also spent $50 million in the
market push. So far, AOL claims the price hike hasn't hurt it.
Clearly, a digital world dominated by these titans is a long way
from the wide-open markets that many analysts were predicting only
18 months ago. The not-so-bad news is that the new battle for the
Net is between two well-oiled machines, with lots of cash and plenty
of incentive to innovate and keep their competitive edges sharp.
Without AOL, RealNetworks might have gone the way of Netscape.
Microsoft's deep pockets keep AOL from dial-up domination. While
neither superpower may win, the consumer just might.
参考译文
随着微软进军互联网，AOL-TW遭遇到前所未有的强大敌手。互联网上，一场冷战打响了。
两大巨人依然屹立在互联网坍塌的废墟中。一个巨人是AOL时代华纳公司，势力范围包括媒体、互联网接入和有线电视；另一个巨人是微软，它是软件业的霸主。最近，两大巨人在微软XP操作系统与AOL在线网络服务如何互动的问题上没能取得一致，双方谈判失败。谈判失败营造出一个悬念：AOL和微软在争夺新一代网民的战斗中，谁将最后取胜呢？
这场战斗堪称互联网超级大战，双方将运用“冷战”谈判、结盟、占领技术制高点等各种战术。一方面，微软和AOL在拨号上网、短消息服务和互动电视等领域短兵相接；但另一方面，他们有很多领域没有短兵相接，比如AOL没有操作系统，而微软没有媒体公司。但是，恰恰是在这些没有短兵相接的领域，冷战显得最为激烈。
目前，两大巨人到处寻找盟友，试图营造新的势力范围。AOL时代华纳的副总裁约翰.巴克利（John
Buckley）辩称：“我们坚信，消费者在音乐播放等方面不应该只有一个选择。但是，消费者在电子表格、文字处理及其它软件方面却只有一个选择，那完全是微软的选择！”约翰的话语十分辛辣，却十分沉重。
两大对手势均力敌
两大超级巨人霸占了整个市场，消费者能够从中得利吗？答案是肯定的。十多年来，AOL和微软破天荒第一次遇到了真正的敌手，最终的结果将是谁也无法在这场战斗中取胜，从而使数字媒体、电子游戏和有线电视等市场处于一个良性竞争。
以媒体播放技术的竞争为例。AOL在媒体播放技术领域不是主角，但希望有除比尔.盖茨和史蒂夫.巴尔默以外的其它人来扮演主角。所以，AOL与微软的主演竞争对手RealNetworks建立了深厚的盟友关系。RealNetworks在市场上处于领先地位，拥有2亿多注册用户。但是，该公司虽然拥有庞大的用户，但一直无法向用户收费，特别是微软在Windows操作系统中免费搭配上Winfows
Media Player以后，RealiNetworks更加难于向用户收费了。
AOL向RealNetworks公司提供了最大限度的支持。去年7月，AOL宣布在自己的最新版AOL6.0软件中搭配安装RealNetworks公司的RealPlayer播放器，使RealNetworks直接面向AOL的3000万用户。今年4月2日，AOL选定RealNetworks公司作为即将推出的MusicNet音乐订购服务的合作伙伴。
MusicNet音乐订购服务是由时代华纳音乐唱片公司、百代唱片公司（EMI）和BMG古典音乐世界三家公司联合推出的，在RealNetworks公司的技术支持下，向人们提供各种可供下载的数字音乐。据一名数字媒体专家表示，RealNetworks向人们提供了一个选择余地，使Windows不能独专。
游戏计划
在线游戏是AOL和微软垂涎三尺的另一个领域。视频游戏一旦联网，游戏机将成为一个类似于PC的平台，可以销售广告、音乐等服务。5月15日，AOL与索尼达成了一项交易，允许索尼在PlayStion2下一代产品中安装AOL的e-mail和即时短消息收发软件。交换条件是，索尼将在游戏机中安装上一个适配器，允许消费者访问AOL的互联网内容以及在线游戏。今年年底，索尼将在硬盘上安装RealNetworks的RealPlayer和RealJukebox软件，然后把硬盘直接安装到PlayStation2游戏机上。
AOL达成的一系列交易只有一个目的，那就是阻止微软长驱直入，挫败微软的锐气。11月6日，微软即将推出Xbox新一代游戏系统，号称要投资5亿美元打一场闪电战。据波士顿CIBC市场调查公司的一名分析家说：“游戏并不是AOL和RealNetworks公司的核心业务，但他们不想对微软拱手相让。”
在AOL的势力范围（如有线电视），微软采取的是防御性结盟战略，尽管微软保持低调，称与AOL结盟具有重要的战略意义。微软的发言人说：“我们采取依靠第三方支持的战略向前推进。但是否与AOL合作，关键要看AOL希望与微软达成怎样的合作关系。”自1997年，微软已在Comcast公司和AT&T公司分别投资了10亿和50亿美元，以保证自己在互动电视的发展中保持强大的势力。
据波斯顿调查公司Yankee
Group的一名分析家说：“微软一直致力于在有线电视领域取得一席之地。目前，业界已推举微软是互动电视领域的两大竞争者之一。”微软的投资虽然不能直接撼动时代华纳公司在有线电视的霸主地位，但毕竟给AOL构成了一定威胁。
AOL助推Sun微系统公司
与此同时，AOL热心于团结反微软阵营中的其它公司。1月份，AOL向微软的死对头Sun微系统公司购买了价值4亿美元的产品和服务，在销售如此不景气的情况下着实推了Sun微系统公司一把。目前，AOL拥有4000多台Sun服务器。
反过来，微软于最近考验了AOL的3000万拨号上网用户对AOL的忠实度。AOL在5月份把服务价格上涨了9%，而MSN的价格却保持不变，同时向新用户提供三个月免费服务，而且微软投资了5000万美元用于市场促销。到目前为止，AOL宣称提价还没有造成伤害。
很明显，由这些巨人主宰的数字世界还远远不能称其为完全敞开的市场，但值得庆幸的是，这场战争在两大巨人之间展开，他们拥有大量的现金、足够的创新和争胜精神。如果没有AOL的帮助，RealNetworks可能只有落得个像Netscape一样的命运；相反，微软的雄厚资金阻止了AOL独霸拨号上网业务。两大超级巨人可能谁也无法取胜，只有消费者可能渔翁得利。
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发表于 2003-9-20 16:47:55